This is a practitioner’s book, combining theoretical and practical applications for project professionals. It is a loosely coupled work flow that takes PM’s through the most important quantitative methods, integrates them, and shows interrelationships that cannot be obtained by separate readings. These practical methods can be applied easily by project practitioners who are not steeped in theory and need to know how to make everyday use of numerical analysis in projects. This book also covers financial and life cycle risk as well as risk for the project itself and contains unique extensions to earned value and project initiation. This book will be of particular interest to project managers, program managers, project administrators, system engineers, cost and risk estimators, as well as continuing education and seminar providers.

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• Introduces probability and statistics for the project manager and discusses their importance for setting achievable expectations and managing risk


• Discusses the work breakdown structure and its connection to the company general ledger with examples of estimates using different methods, under various states of uncertain and incomplete information
• Covers decision trees and decision tables used for quantitative decision making and includes examples of simple trees, trees with independent conditions, and trees with dependent conditions
• Explains risk-adjusted methods in capital budgeting and introduces the concepts of expense accounting and earned value
• Examines the numbers and provides insight on project contracting as a risk management tool
• Covers special topics such as hypothesis testing, regression analysis, probability-impact analysis, Six Sigma, and QFD analysis

John Goodpasture is President, Square Peg Consulting, Inc., a consulting firm in the field of project management. He has an MS in Electrical Engineering and over 35 years of work experience in complex multi-million-dollar programs and projects in the defense, intelligence, aerospace and commercial industries. John is the author of Managing Projects for Value, has authored dozens of articles in PM Network magazine, and has authored and presented numerous papers and several unique quantitative techniques to PMI National Symposium. He is an experienced and sought-after speaker, instructor, and lecturer.

Project Value: The Source of All Quantitative Measures
      Successful Projects
      Business Value Is the Motivator for Projects
      A Framework for Value, Risk, and Capability: The Project Balance Sheet
      Summary

Introduction to Probability and Statistics for Projects
      There are No Facts about the Future
      Probability... What Do We Mean by It?
      Random Variables and Their Functions in Projects
      Probability Distributions for Project Managers
      Key Statistics Used in Projects
      The Arithmetic of Operations on Statistics and Random Variables
      Probability Distribution Statistics
      The Central Limit Theorem and Law of Large Numbers
      Confidence Intervals and Limits for Projects
      Covariance and Correlation in Projects
      Summary

Organizing and Estimating the Work
      Organizing the Scope of the Work
      Estimating Methods for Projects
      Summary

Making Quantitative Decisions
      A Project Policy for Decisions
      The Decision Tree
      Decision Tables
      Decisions and Conditions
      Summary

Risk-Adjusted Financial Management
      Financial Statements
      Capital Budgeting
      Discounted Cash Flow
      Summary

Expense Accounting and Earned Value
      The Expense Statement
      Applying Three-Point Statistical Estimates to Cost
      The Earned Value Concept
      Preparing the Project Team for Earned Value
      Applying Earned Value
      Time-Centric Earned Value
      Summary

Quantitative Time Management
      Quantitative Techniques in Time Management
      Setting the Program Milestone
      The Schedule Network
      The Critical Path Method
      The Central Limit Theorem Applied to Networks
      Monte Carlo Simulation of the Network Performance
      Architecture Weaknesses in Scheduling Logic
      Rolling Wave Plan
      The Critical Chain
      Summary

Special Topics in Quantitative Management
      Regression Analysis
      Hypothesis Testing
      Risk Management with Probability Times Impact Analysis
      Six Sigma and Project Management
      Quality Function Deployment
      Summary

Quantitative Methods in Project Contracts
      Project Contracts
      The Mathematics of Project Contracts
      Summary

Index

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